Plantation, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS62 KMFL 152316
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Model ensembles and global guidance, along with sfc analyses depict
a continuing summer synoptic pattern for the short term as a broad
high pressure ridge remains in control of the west Atlantic and the
region. Models also keep in place overall high pressure at the
mid/upper levels for the next several days. Some additional drier
air is also seen trying to filter into the mid levels across the
area. However, MFL 00Z sounding and model/ACARS data still show
enough atmospheric moisture in place to support rounds of scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. PWATs remain in the 1.2-
1.5 inch range, with fairly drier air above 700 mb. Therefore, not
expecting that the afternoon thunderstorm activity will linger into
the nighttime hours, with best chances for some evening showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the interior/western half of SoFlo. This
is mainly due to the prevailing synoptic flow, with CAM guidance
showing robust SE winds helping the east coast sea breeze to
penetrate further inland while dominating the weaker west coast
sea breeze. For the overnight hours, some coastal showers are
still expected to develop at times through Monday morning, but
most should be quick and light in nature.

For the rest of Monday, the synoptic pattern described above
remains in place with generally scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms favoring interior and western areas of SoFlo. But
slightly drier air entrainment on the Atlantic side will reduce POPs
a little in the afternoon hours with POPs dropping form the 40s to
the teens by mid afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves
inland. Those same sea breeze boundaries should again become focal
points for deeper convection, along with outflow boundaries from
previous storms. Main hazards associated with thunderstorm activity
will be damaging gusty winds, lightning strikes, and localized
heavy rain.

Tonight`s temperatures are expected to remain in the low-mid 70s
inland to near 80 around coastal locations. For Monday, afternoon
highs should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, warmer inland. Heat
index values may reach triple digits over inland and southwest areas
of SoFlo Monday afternoon.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Extended guidance continues to show prevailing sfc ridging across
the west Atlantic and the Florida peninsula, while high pressure
remains in place aloft. The lingering SAL should be gradually
dissipating through mid week, with model soundings showing a very
modest increase in atmospheric moisture for the later part of the
work week. Therefore, expect a typical summer pattern to continue
with sea breeze circulations becoming the main mechanism for deep
convection/thunderstorms each afternoon. Also expecting early
morning coastal showers embedded in the synoptic SE flow each day.

Model consensus remains fairly poor regarding the potential for an
upper level disturbance to approach the area during the weekend from
the Bahamas. Therefore, the forecast will remain close to the
ongoing summer time pattern and wait for more persistence and
consensus in the models before incorporating significant changes to
the POPs/Wx grids for the weekend.

Temperatures will run generally above normals, with afternoon highs
in the low-mid 90s inland, and upper 80s to low 90s near the
coasts. Overnight lows will likely remain in the low 70s inland, and
in the upper 70s to around 80 across near the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Extended guidance continues to show prevailing sfc ridging across
the west Atlantic and the Florida peninsula, while high pressure
remains in place aloft. The lingering SAL should be gradually
dissipating through mid week, with model soundings showing a very
modest increase in atmospheric moisture for the later part of the
work week. Therefore, expect a typical summer pattern to continue
with sea breeze circulations becoming the main mechanism for deep
convection/thunderstorms each afternoon. Also expecting early
morning coastal showers embedded in the synoptic SE flow each day.

Model consensus remains fairly poor regarding the potential for an
upper level disturbance to approach the area during the weekend from
the Bahamas. Therefore, the forecast will remain close to the
ongoing summer time pattern and wait for more persistence and
consensus in the models before incorporating significant changes to
the POPs/Wx grids for the weekend.

Temperatures will run generally above normals, with afternoon highs
in the low-mid 90s inland, and upper 80s to low 90s near the
coasts. Overnight lows will likely remain in the low 70s inland, and
in the upper 70s to around 80 across near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Generally VFR continues during the next 24 hours with light
southeasterly flow overnight and a low chance of SHRA moving
onshore along the east coast from time to time. Southeasterly
flow will enhance after daybreak with a switch to a Gulf breeze at
KAPF at 17-19z in conjunction with an increase in SHRA/TSRA
coverage across the western half of the region on Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Moderate SE winds continue through the forecast period, shifting
more easterly after mid week. Afternoon gusty periods are expected
in the Atlantic nearshore waters with sea breezes. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible each day. Any thunderstorm that forms
may produce periods of gusty winds and rough seas. Outside of
convection, seas in the Atlantic 1-3 ft, and seas in the Gulf 2 ft
or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Continuing robust SE winds will result in a moderate risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches through the first half of the work
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  89  79  90 /  10  40  10  40
West Kendall     76  91  76  91 /  10  40  10  40
Opa-Locka        80  91  79  92 /  10  40  10  30
Homestead        78  89  78  90 /  10  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  79  89 /  10  40  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  80  89  79  90 /  10  40  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  10  40  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  90  79  90 /  10  40   0  20
Boca Raton       79  91  79  91 /  10  40  10  30
Naples           75  90  74  91 /  50  60  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi